Poland set for knife-edge presidential runoff as right surges
SUMMARY
Poland is heading toward a razor-thin presidential runoff after centrist Rafal Trzaskowski narrowly edged out right-leaning candidate Karol Nawrocki in the first round, 31.4% to 29.5%—a much tighter margin than polls had forecast. The June 1 runoff will be pivotal for the future of Poland’s political direction. Trzaskowski, backed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition, faces growing momentum from a resurgent right that is gaining support by challenging EU overreach, promoting national sovereignty, and offering bold economic reforms. Right-wing candidates Slawomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun together earned over 21%—the strongest performance yet for the rising movement. Mentzen, in particular, has energized young voters with a message rooted in economic freedom, limited government, and border security. With polls showing Trzaskowski at 46%, Nawrocki at 44%, and 10% undecided, the runoff is wide open—and Poland’s ideological shift is already underway.
